Week's Market (26 Dec - 30 Dec)
This is the last week of 2011.This year has not been good for the economies of the world. It has given us recession, European debt crisis, and slower growth rates. But in the end these signs of bad economic condition have started to fade out and the process of auto recovery in the different sectors of global economy has started. European crisis is still there but in the coming year it has to die out as it is a banking crisis rather than a Euro zone collapse. This year is going to end in a higher note. There is a precarious world economic position expected in the end of this year. In near future world economies are going to reboot themselves. The stocks are on a test to prove their capacity to carry a rally into New Year with a positive mode.
New development in economic scene is going to take place, as Brazil's GDP growth is going to raked 6th in the line of economic giants .India is also preparing to cross Japan's growth rate. The image below will give a sketch of world economic growth rate.
The European bond auction is delayed to the second week of January .The European crisis and its management will be taken away for some time from the world economic scene.
The S&P 500 index is 0.6% up, turning positive for the year 2011.There has been a four day rally after better then expected economic data, which lifted stocks in the market.
It was predicted by some economists that United States would default on its debt. This pessimism has been blown away by recent financial figures. The labor market is in a good phase and new jobs are being created. The data about consumer activity is in positive node. The American consumer is spending more dollars, which is creating a positive demand for consumer goods. The housing sector is also recovering. The prices of gas are also lower .It is resulting in lowering consumer bills. It is utilized in consumer goods. This demand and a lower gas price is a good luck for factories.
Euro banks are looking reluctant to lend each other. They are just depositing the cash with the ECB for future use. They are not lending in economy or buying government bonds as it was expected. The ECB is ready to disperse cash in economy to avert a possible credit crunch at 1% interest.
The Franklin Templeton executive is optimistic about Europe and thinks that recent crisis would enc until June in next year. He is also of the opinion that Euro debt crisis is being exaggerated. The emerging markets are also recovering.
The volatility of individual shares can be affected with the announcements of corporate earnings. Markets are keeping a close eye on developments on Iran's crisis. Oil prices are expected to rise as U.S crude stockpiles are declining and a pressure is being built on Iran's nuclear program. Further sanctions are expected to be imposed on Iran the second largest supplier of OPEC. Oil once again is going to go up in international markets. Before this tension Oil was predicted to trade $80 to $90 a barrel. Oil price-rally is unavoidable as sanctions are being discussed.
Good bye 2011.
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