Week's market (2 Jan -6 Jan)
The global economy is going to have a bumpy year. It is certain that the economies of the world will finally start spluttering back into life, interest rates will have to remain low. The world's main central banks have joined forces to counter the effects of the euro zone. The banks of the US, euro zone, Japan, Canada, Britain and Switzerland have agreed to lower the price on existing dollar swaps. If high Bank Rate is imposed due to inflation forces prematurely, the impact on businesses could be severe and any recovery nipped in the bud. It is predicted that rates will be unlikely to rise before end of 2012. Global growth is projected to grow at 3.2 percent in 2012. Many analysts now fear that a “perfect storm” could be brewing and that we could actually be headed for an economic apocalypse in 2012. Sadly, if there is an economic apocalypse in 2012, as it is being predicted. The rich are not going to suffer the most. It will be the poor, the unemployed, the homeless and the hungry that feel the most pain. The world economic growth is expected 3.6 per cent over 2012 – above the norm of around three to 3.25 per cent.
After almost two years of a brutal recession followed by another two years of an even slower recovery, the U.S. economy finally will enter into expansion phase again. The dollar is expected to fall averaging six percent decline per year and unemployment is expected to come down very slowly, to about 7.5 percent at the end of 2013. That's still too high, of course. The U.S.is dealing with unprecedented debt problems, the financial markets are flailing about wildly, austerity programs are being implemented all over the globe, prices on basics such as food are soaring and a lot of consumers are flat out scared right now. There are all kinds of indications that U.S. economic growth is about to slow down even further in 2012. The Latin American emerging markets are likely to achieve growth in 2012, with a predicted growth rate of fewer than 4%.
European countries growth in 2012 is expected to be weaker. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at the current level of 1.5% until the end of 2012 with inflationary pressure, increased economic risks and the debt crisis. Almost 29.4 million overseas arrivals have been predicted to the UK on the back of the Games, a four percent rise, though says a dip can be expected in 2013. GDP is expected to grow by around 1¾% this year and just under 2% in 2012.
China is ranked as world's largest economy with around 10 percent economic growth over the years. It has become second largest economy of the world by surpassing France, Britain, Germany and Japan.
USA is the only mile stone for China. China's trade ministry is optimistic about the prospects of the country's trade, despite increasing concern in the global marketplace.
A recovery in advanced economies will be more than offset by a gradual slowdown in emerging ones as they mature, with the net result that global growth will slow. But the biggest risk ahead for the global economy is not this slower overall growth in output but a slowdown in average output per capita, which will determine how fast living standards can be supported and raised.
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